President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that he is willing to consider peace negotiations with Russia. He gave the offer in the framework of clear conditions which were connected to the sovereignty and to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Kyiv explains that the next step is left to Moscow. The transition is a challenge on how diplomacy can move forward following months of stalemate in the battlefields.
Kyiv officials refer to any negotiations as being organized and verifiable. They refer to step-by-step steps that have specific timelines and monitoring. Security assurances, nuclear safety in the Zaporizhzhia plant and deported civilians coming back would be on the agenda. There would also be safe navigation in the Black Sea and safeguarding important infrastructure.
The Kremlin has always desired to have its new realities on the ground to be acknowledged. Ukraine denies this and says that
It is impossible to draw the borders with the help of force. There are tentative indications of war in Moscow.
Ukraine official
The Russian officials frequently accompany the willingness to discuss with the demands Kyiv has already excluded. In the meantime, the diplomatic load is placed on Russia by Ukraine to demonstrate its willingness to be in good faith.
The action is targeted at the international community and the battlefield. Kyiv wants allies to realize that it is not the barrier to negotiations. That would assist in maintaining the military and financial assistance with more debate being raised in the allied capitals. It can also appeal to the Global South countries that demand a negotiation and alleviation of the economic shock of the conflict.
Timing matters. Winter causes stress to the energy grids and puts pressure on civilian infrastructure. Air defence and ammunition supply are the key to the survival of Ukraine regarding missile and drone attacks. The support rate is affected by elections and budget terms in Europe and North America. Sanctions against Russia are still biting and it is a matter of enforcement and unity on whether they will work in the long term.
There is also a market angle. Any believable way to de-escalate would stabilise flows of Black Sea grains and reduce shipping risk premiums. The traders and insurers observe ceasefire promises and demining promises. The prices of food and energy are also vulnerable to the consequences of the war and the war has a knock-on effect on the inflation prices all over the world.
The next one will probably be incremental. Other countries like the UN and others could be on hand to help the negotiators test formats by hosting and where necessary by mediators. The measures of confidence-building may involve, but are not limited to, exchanging prisoners, demining routes, and humanitarian corridors and zones around nuclear plants. A lasting ceasefire would be in need of strong verification. In the meantime, Kyiv has made its conditions. The reaction of the Moscow will dictate the possibility of the actual diplomatic line.