Iran is ready to consider renewed restrictions on its nuclear program if the United States provides the Iranians credible assurances that sanctions relief will not be reversed by a future administration, says a senior official in the Iranian Foreign Ministry, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the ongoing indirect negotiations. The comments signal a cautious diplomatic movement after months of little progress.
The exchanges are being made indirectly, through regional mediators. No final draft agreement has been finalized. However, both sides seem to be looking at the possibility that a phased, compliance- based arrangement could place a cap on enrichment activity and prevent further escalation.
Defining “Guarantees” in Legal and Strategic
Iran’s desire for guarantees stems from the US withdrawal in 2018 from a 2015 nuclear agreement and the reimposition of secondary sanctions thereafter. Iranian officials believe that economic relief must be durable and insulated from sudden policy changes.
In practical terms, Tehran is looking for structural sanction relief with the verification of compliance with the nuclear deal, protected oil revenue mechanisms and protection against unilateral snapback measures. Policy specialists see in reference to escrow arrangements of oil proceeds, multilateral oversight involving European participants and long-term sanctions waivers intended to provide commercial predictability.
US officials believe that under the constitutional system, one administration cannot legally bind a successor without ratification by the Senate of a treaty. Given the high political threshold needed for the approval of a treaty. Washington is more likely to use phased implementation, coordinated commitments with allies, and compliance-based sanctions relief instead of permanent legal guarantees.
Nuclear and Regional Calculations
Iran has stepped beyond the previous limits in uranium enrichment, including elevated levels of enrichment as well as the introduction of sophisticated centrifuges. Western governments allege that such steps shorten breakouts timelines. Tehran says the measures are reversible, if sanctions are dropped.
Both sides retain leverage. Iran’s extended technical capacity increases its bargaining leverage. The United States and European partners continue to implement financial sanctions, export controls and restrictions on oil transactions.
Regional governments are following things very closely. Gulf states favour de-escalation to protect energy installations and maritime routes. Israel continues to argue that any arrangement must include strict verification and meaningful limits on enrichment capability.
Energy Market and Global Implications
Iran holds significant oil and gas reserves. Sustained relief from sanctions allowing increased export volumes could add supply to global markets and ease price volatility especially among Asian importers. However, foreign energy companies assess political durability and compliance mechanisms before long-term investment.
An interim understanding is still possible if the sequencing gaps narrow down. A broader settlement would involve striking a balance between US legal constraints and Iran’s demand for some predictability in terms of economic relief. The direction of these talks will shape regional security calculations and global energy stability around the world in the moments ahead.